TY - ADVS AU - Payne,John W. TI - Improving decisions under uncertainty: Part II T2 - Making decisions : getting it right the first time, PY - 2011/// CY - London PB - Henry Stewart Talks KW - Decision making KW - Risk assessment N1 - Animated audio-visual presentation with synchronized narration; Title from title frames; Contents: Confirmation and overconfidence biases -- Typical calibration curve for being right -- The gap between confidence and accuracy -- Tools for improving assessments of uncertainty -- Properties of human preferences -- Prospect theory: value properties -- Weighting of values by probabilities -- "Formal" risk analysis process -- Dealing with "risky" options -- Risk management strategies; Access restricted to subscribers UR - https://hstalks.com/bm/2085/ UR - https://hstalks.com/bm/p/602/ ER -